Chine 2011 : prévisions économiques pessimistes ? (3/3)

Intrigué par les prévisions de Dian L. Chu quant aux perspectives économiques chinoises, j'ai effectué une recherche dans mes flux RSS.  Et voici les pépites que j'ai retenu, toutes les prévisions ont un biais pessimiste sauf les deux premières. Ces lectures méritent le détour pour comprendre la "big picture" chinoise. A chaque article, regardez pour qui l'auteur roule sa bosse, l'histoire de ne pas lire aveuglément ;-).  Si vous avez parcouru des articles sur l'économie de la Chine qui vous ont marqué, déposez vos liens dans les commentaires, je suis preneur.

Good Tidings in 2011 By Andy Xie - Caixin on line | 12.23.2010
One could describe the global economy as a race between the U.S. and China, to see who goes down first [...]
The most likely candidates to trigger the next global crisis are the U.S.'s sovereign debt or China's inflation. When one goes down first, the other can prolong its economic cycle. China may have won the last race. To win the next one, China must tackle its inflation problem, which is ultimately a political and structural issue, in 2011. [...]
Stability, not fast growth, is China's priority.[...]
China's nominal GDP may reach US$ 6 trillion in 2010. If it rises at 10 percent per annum in the next decade, half as much as in the past decade, it would reach US$ 15.6 trillion by 2020, rivaling the U.S.'s GDP today. Stable growth, rather maximum growth at high risk is now in China's best interest. [...]
For most developing countries, they need to spend as much on infrastructure and increasing manufacturing capacity as possible. The conventional view on investment efficiency doesn't apply to developing countries [...]
The inflation and bubbles in the developing world are not yet destabilizing because the dollar is weak and the hot money supports their currency values. Historically, inflation becomes a crisis in the developing world when the dollar turns around and appreciates.[...]
China has a strong government. The household sector or the business sector lives in the shadow of the government. Only the government system malfunctioning can cause a crisis to bring down the economy. Runaway government expenditure is a clear and present danger to the country. The coming year provides a great opportunity for China to deal with the problem. But, if China lets the property bubble grow, as has happened under previous circumstances, China could suffer a hard landing in 2012. It could unsettle China's development path like so many times in the past century.
2011 China Outlook: The Red Dragon Takes Its Next Step Forward By Jason Simpkins - Money Morning | 5/01/2011
The world's second-largest economy is set to grow 9-10% this year, building on its strong rebound from the global financial crisis. Furthermore, Beijing is determined to accelerate China's transition toward a more domestically based economy, while stabilizing prices and cutting government waste. So in addition to strong growth numbers, investors can expect more disciplined and responsible economic development.[...]
"The gray market simply means cash that's outside the system," said Fitz-Gerald, who claims there are "thousands" of ways to hide cash from the government in China. China's households hide as much as $1.4 trillion (9.3 trillion yuan) of income that is not reported in official figures, with 80% accrued by the country's wealthiest people, Credit Suisse Group AG (NYSE: AG) said in a recent report.[...]
"The two biggest misconceptions that Westerners have about China are that it's solely dependent on exports and manufacturing, and that the fact that they're communist will somehow interfere with capitalist development," he said. "If anything Chinese style communism has proven remarkably stable."
    China the Mother of All Grey Swans / Japan Past the Point of No Return - October 2010 - By Vitaliy Katsenelson
    Shadow over Asia by Vitaliy Katsenelson - Contrarian Edge | 14/10/2010
    Today the conventional wisdom is that somehow the Chinese economy is better managed than its competitors, very similar to how people viewed Japan in the 1970s and 1980s. Back then people were absolutely convinced that Japan was the superior country with superior policies and that its economy was unstoppable. We all know how that ended.[...]
    For example, when you have a huge government presence in the economy, you also have a huge bureaucracy, and bureaucracy brings corruption. This is one of the reasons why China is rated so poorly on Transparency International’s annual corruption rating. Corruption breeds misallocation of capital, because the capital flows not to the best use, but it basically flows to whatever the political connection or whatever the bribe is directed to.[...]
    In addition, when you have a government-managed economy, it creates excesses. China has huge excesses in the industrial sector, as well as in commercial and residential real estate. We see plenty of evidence of these excesses, but they are likely to be much greater than we can measure today as they are covered up by robust economic growth. The true magnitude of these excesses will come to the surface once the economy slows down.
      China Overbuilding to 'Hit a Wall': Hedge Fund Pro Jim Chanos By Michelle Lodge - Writer | 10/12/2010
      “Construction is 60-plus percent of GDP, compared to exports of 5,” said Chanos, who is the founder and president of Kynikos Associates. “The problem is that consumption as a percentage of Chinese economy has declined in the last 10 years, from 40 to 35 percent. It’s all real estate,” he said. After the US, China has the world's second largest economy.
      China's Grey Swan is changing colors « par Jack H Barnes - Confessions of a Macro Contrarian | 3/1/2011
      The Chinese economy is heading toward an economic hard landing; it will overshoot to the downside and become the economic Black Swan event of 2011-2012.  Inflation, yes both types, will be the story in China in the coming months.
      The steps necessary for an economic black swan landing have all happened, what is next is just the crash landing.  The rains in Australia have cemented China’s economic slowdown.  The rains will have longer lasting implications for both economies.
        Albert Edwards, SocGen bear, takes a bite out of China by Nils Pratley - The Guardian | 3/1/2011
        "Analyst famous for his Ice Age thesis sees a new economic crisis on the way"
        In a new profile up at The Guardian, Edwards takes aim at China, where he predicts a collapse that will take down markets around the world. To him the country is a "freak economy" with a ridiculously high and persistent investment-to-GDP ration, and he fears that everyone is just taking Chinese growth for granted in forecasting strong demand helping the rest of the world's economies.
        In Edwards' view, China is a "freak economy"; its investment-to-GDP ratio is off the scale in terms of size and endurance. "In development history, Korea is the only one that got close. It then collapsed. China is basing a growth model on the most unstable part of GDP. The Chinese authorities have recognised this and are trying to steer the economy over to consumption – which is fine, but it will take a long time."[...]
        For statistical support, he points to the OECD's leading indicator of economic activity, which measures factors such as electricity production, freight activity and money supply. In China, it is slowing rapidly, even though commodity prices are as elevated as they were in early 2008 (prices then plunged). Something has to give – and probably sooner than most people assume. The degree of "push-back" from clients to his view on China reminds him of the resistance to his bearish calls on the dotcom and east Asian bubbles.
        The Queensland Flood is Coming to Your Neighborhood By Tom Whipple - Falls Church News-Press Online | 05/01/2011
        Recent reports from Australia say that mines accounting for roughly 40 percent of the world's coking coal have been shut down by the flooding and it may be several months before production is back to normal. Australian steam coal production is also affected and the problem is exacerbated by the same rains hitting nearby Indonesian mines slowing coal production there.[...]
        How this is all going to work out is difficult to foresee. Should the coking coal shortage slow China's economic growth significantly, then it is possible that Beijing's demand for oil could slow too. The other side of the coin however, is that China has a history of increasing oil imports to make up for coal and power shortages by keeping factories running with emergency generators. This is fact is what appears to have happened last fall when Chinese oil imports surged to new highs.

        Un scénario parmi d'autres : Le Krach de la Chine par Alex Kerala | 30/12/2010
          Voici les éléments :Krach de la Chine. Pourquoi ? La lutte contre l'inflation provoque des mesures restrictives sur le crédit qui finissent par faire exploser la bulle immobilière et boursière chinoise, et provoque un krach , avec des faillites en cascades. (le 1929 chinois). Conséquences :
          • Baisse du pétrole et des matières premières
          • nouvel effet "deleverage"
          • Baisse des bourses mondiales
          • Nouvelles faillites bancaires
          • Récession économique
          • Baisse de l'immobilier
          • Bonne Résistance, voire hausse de l'or
          • Hausse du dollar
          Le scénario déflationniste / "risk off" par excellence, avec cependant une surperformance (relative) de l'or. Ce serait 2008 mais peut-être en pire. Selon une autre variante, on aurait une chute du dollar et de l'or du fait de l'absence d'achats de la Chine qui ont été de gros acheteurs d'or et de dollar au cours de la décennie écoulée. Maintenant, dites-moi ce qui pourrait contredire ce scénario...
          Quand la Chine s'effondrera par GameTheory - SoBiz, le business expliqué à ta soeur | 21/12/2010
          La réalité est, comme souvent, un brin plus complexe. D’abord parce que la situation macroéconomique de la Chine est plus fragile qu’il n’y paraît : le pays traverse actuellement une vague d’inflation qui effraie jusqu’aux cacochymes du politburo. Le chiffre officiel de 5,1% masque des augmentations de prix de 60% en un an de certaines denrées alimentaires (ail, gingembre).
            A Pékin, le mal-logement se règlera à coups de gourdin par Jordan Pouille | 31/12/2010
            Héritage de la guerre froide, Pékin compte de nombreux sous-sols anti-atomiques, construits sous les immeubles, souvent dans les quartiers centraux, à l’intérieur du périphérique, comme à WangFujing. Cachés derrière de grosses portes en fonte, ils ont été aménagés au fil des ans en logements locatifs abordables pour les travailleurs modestes de la capitale, refroidis par l’explosion des prix de l’immobilier.
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